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Don Bell, Poultry Specialist Emeritus, University California at Riverside and now sponsored by United Egg Producers, released the latest U.S. egg industry statistics for the first eight months of 2008.

1.To tal pullet chick hatch through August 2008 was 317.8 million. This is 7. 7 million more than the cumulative hatch for the comparison period in 2007. The 24-month-previous hatch, regarded as a reliable indicator of future egg prices is now up by 15. 7 million pullets. During the 10-year period

1996 through 2006, it was determined that each additional million pullet chicks hatched over a two-year period depressed the Urn-

^Don ^Beller-Barry Midwest (U-B M) price by 0.4 cents per dozen.

This relationship does not necessarily hold for 2009 onwards since there have been significant changes in the U.S. economy, cost of production and unit revenue. Generally more hens relate to higher production which in turn may depress prices unless demand increases proportionately.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a per capita consumption of 249.8 eggs in 2008 which is a 0.3% decline over 2007.

2.It is estimated that 207.9 million pullets will be transferred from rearing to laying houses, a 5% increase over last year.

3.Th e average flock size as of the end of August was 280.5 million hens representing a 1.6% decrease over 2007. Hen numbers are expected to peak at 288.6 million in January 2009 with a gradual decline to 285.4 million in July.

4.Eg g production through August 2008 attained 51 billion which is 0.4% less than in 2007. Production has remained fairly stable since 2006 despite changes in cage density.

5.Approximately 25% of the national flock had been molted during the first eight months of 2008 reflecting a 3% decline over last year.

6.A total of 48.7 million hens were processed in USDA-in-spected plants which are historically responsible for disposal of between 45% to 50% of depleted flocks. A greater proportion of hens are now processed as the total is now 27% more than in 2007.

7.About 45.4 million cases were broken for further processing, representing a 2.8% increase over the first eight months of 2007. The USDA projects that 32.1% of U.S. production will be broken in 2008.

8.Th e U-B M large grade price averaged 132.9 cents per dozen through September 2008 compared to 108.6 cents per dozen in 2007. Egg price is anticipated to increase to

➤ Average production
cost for the United
States was 68 cents
per dozen over the
first nine months
of 2008.

137.8 cents per dozen in November and December 2008 and will then decline during the beginning of 2009 to 110 cents per dozen by May.

Annualizing values for 2008 and comparing with 2006, there has been a 76% increase in the U-B M price since 2006. The U-B M breakers’ egg price for the first nine months of 2008 averaged 87.7 cents or 66% of the nest run price.

Breaker egg prices have firmed by 29% over the nine-month average for 2007.

9.Average production cost for the United States was 68 cents per dozen over the first nine months of 2008 which compares with 51.5 cents per dozen for calendar 2007.

In comparing the nine month periods, there has been a 17.5% increase in production cost attributed mainly to an escalation in feed and fuel prices.

Since 2006, egg production costs have increased by 55% with feed representing 63%. There was an appreciable decline in production cost due to the drop in ingredient prices for August and September. EI