Egg Industry - July 2019 - 14

14 ❙ EggIndustry
KNOW ABOUT ASF
ground turkey meat and for turkey
versus ham.

Will ASF force a trade deal
between the US and China?
The most significant question
surrounding the financial impact of
ASF on the U.S. poultry industry is
whether or not the U.S. will be able
to directly export products to China
again. As of press time, there are
ongoing negotiations between the
U.S. and China to establish a new
trade deal between the world's two
largest economies.
Right now, no one can say with
certainty that the ASF situation in
China will force a deal. Nevertheless,
the fundamentals of supply and
demand suggest that the U.S. could
gain some access to China for the
first time in more than four years.
Jim Sumner, president of the USA
Poultry & Egg Export Council, said
China does not import frozen goods
or breeding stock from the U.S. But,
the dynamics of their own chicken

said, levels global trade quite like
animal disease outbreaks.
Sumner said negotiations are
progressing between the U.S.
and China and that chicken and
turkey will be a very important
part of the agricultural tenants of
any deal. Moreover, the details
of poultry trade are agreed upon.
But, he said, there is no deal for
agriculture until every part of a
trade pact is completed.
Closure of any deal, Sumner
said, will most likely come down
to the leaders of both countries
meeting and agreeing to terms
personally. He said there are encouraging signs this could happen soon.

Future trade
possibilities with China
If the U.S. does gain some access to
China, it would be a further benefit
for the poultry industry at large.
Whatever happens, China will
import more chicken. If China does
not end up importing anything from

View our continuing coverage of the African
swine fever outbreak: www.WATTAgNet.com/
topics/7055
industry and the country's growing
need for protein suggests the U.S.'
case for re-entering the market is
gaining traction. He said as the year
progresses and the meat supply situation becomes more desperate, China
will be more encouraged to do something to fulfill demand. Nothing, he

the U.S., and instead imports from
Brazil and other exporters, Aho
expects the U.S. market will still
benefit because of higher prices.
China historically imports jumbo
paws and wing tips and could be a
strong market for leg quarters, he said.
Before China's 2010 ban on

chicken imports on anti-dumping
grounds, which preceded its current
ban on avian influenza grounds
imposed in 2015, the U.S. was
exporting around 300,000 metric
tons of chicken, or about 2% of its
production, to China, Bienvenu said.
If trade were to resume, it would likely
be about the same amount of demand.
That raises the question if
exporters can expect to set up shop
for the long term in China due to
new market access and favorable
conditions spurred by the ASF
crisis. Bienvenu said China is under
high pressure to allow more imports
due to rapidly inflating meat prices.
McCracken expects stronger
export demand for U.S. chicken as
global meat supplies tighten. However,
she cautioned that U.S. exports of
all protein could face logistical challenges. Right now, the necessary
facilities - freezers, cold storage and
containers - are potential bottlenecks
that could limit exports. That can
change, but investments will need to
be made and it will take time.
While there is an opportunity
for U.S. protein exporters, China
aims to be self-sufficient in protein.
McCracken expects China to move
quickly to expand its poultry, seafood
and egg industries. China's efforts to
expand its chicken production will
be slow due to an aging breeder flock
and disease challenges. She expects
the increase in Chinese poultry
production to result in a long-term
structural shift in demand that may
permanently impair pork demand. ■
www.WATTAgNet.com ❙ July 2019


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Egg Industry - July 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Egg Industry - July 2019

Egg Industry - July 2019
How to properly implement poultry farm biosecurity plans
What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
Change your words, change consumer perception
Learn about FFAR poultry projects at the Poultry Tech Summit
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT1
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT2
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Egg Industry - July 2019
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Cover2
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT3
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT4
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 3
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 4
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 5
Egg Industry - July 2019 - How to properly implement poultry farm biosecurity plans
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 7
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 8
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 9
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 10
Egg Industry - July 2019 - What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 12
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 13
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 14
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Change your words, change consumer perception
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Learn about FFAR poultry projects at the Poultry Tech Summit
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 17
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 18
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Cover3
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Cover4
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