Egg Industry - July 2019 - 13

EggIndustry ❙ 13

higher meat prices will be a benefit for protein producers.
Specifically for chicken, Aho said this scenario is good
even if the U.S. does not end up exporting any chicken
to China. The U.S. industry is fortunate to be opening
new poultry plants, and renovating existing facilities to
increase production, just as the ASF outbreak is impacting
the protein supply. Rather than contributing to an oversupply situation as was feared, Aho said the plants look
perfectly timed and should be opening to high demand
and favorable prices.
Ben Bienvenu, the managing director of Stephens Inc.'s
food and agribusiness research sector, said the short-term
impacts may take a while to be seen. Chicken, and other
protein prices, will rise more slowly than pork. From a
stock market perspective, ASF only emerged on the scene
in the past few months. However, the publicly traded
companies involved in the chicken industry - Tyson
Foods Inc., Pilgrim's Pride Corp., Sanderson Farms Inc.
- experienced rising stock prices as news of the severity
of the ASF outbreak spread and as seasonal demand for
chicken began to increase.

Potential longer term impacts
Looking into the future, it is harder to say how the U.S.
poultry industry will be affected by the current outbreak of
ASF. Generally, if China has a protein shortage, it will mean
more opportunities for other countries to fill the demand.
Bienvenu said it's likely the ASF event will take years
to be resolved. Even if the disease were totally eradicated
overnight, it would take 20 months for China to get back
to its pre-ASF production levels. Because of that, he
expects chicken to benefit in terms of higher prices for the
next several years.
Turkey will also likely benefit as consumers typically
trade off between pork and turkey, particularly at the holidays. McCracken said whenever there is a shortage of ham
on the market, turkey normally benefits. Lower supplies of
competing protein on domestic markets should help alleviate oversupply issues in the turkey market, but it may not
see the direct benefit of Chinese demand. Bienvenu agreed
that ASF will be a positive demand driver for products like
July 2019 ❙ www.WATTAgNet.com

Paul Aho,
Poultry Perspective
Benjamin Ruiz

Christine McCracken,
Rabobank Courtesy Rabobank

Ben Bienvenu,
Stephens Inc.
Courtesy Stephens Inc.

Jim Sumner,
USA Poultry & Egg Export
Council Courtesy USA Poultry & Egg
Export Council


http://www.WATTAgNet.com

Egg Industry - July 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Egg Industry - July 2019

Egg Industry - July 2019
How to properly implement poultry farm biosecurity plans
What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
Change your words, change consumer perception
Learn about FFAR poultry projects at the Poultry Tech Summit
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT1
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT2
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Egg Industry - July 2019
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Cover2
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT3
Egg Industry - July 2019 - CT4
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 3
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 4
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 5
Egg Industry - July 2019 - How to properly implement poultry farm biosecurity plans
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 7
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 8
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 9
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 10
Egg Industry - July 2019 - What the US poultry industry needs to know about ASF
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 12
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 13
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 14
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Change your words, change consumer perception
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Learn about FFAR poultry projects at the Poultry Tech Summit
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 17
Egg Industry - July 2019 - 18
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Cover3
Egg Industry - July 2019 - Cover4
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